Overview

My work centers on causal inference, adaptive design, and online experimentation.

  • Causal inference with external controls, interference, and complex dependence structures.
  • Adaptive clinical trials, online experiments, and multi-arm bandits.
  • Time-series and state-space modeling.

Publications and Manuscripts

  1. Junzhe Shao, Xiaoxuan Cai, Linda Valeri. Synthetic Control as Missing Data: A Unified State-Space Approach, preparing for submission.
  2. Junzhe Shao, Jiawen Zhu, Herbert Pang. Leveraging Longitudinal Data in Designing Hybrid RCT with the Incorporation of Real-World Data, manuscript in preparation, 2026.
  3. Junzhe Shao, Waverley Wei, Jingshen Wang. Adaptive A/B Testing under Nonstationary Dynamics using State-Space Models, International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2026.
  4. Junzhe Shao, Aibo Gong, Juan Shen, Waverley Wei. A Unified Adaptive Enrichment Design for Power Enhancement, major revision at Statistica Sinica, 2025. [arXiv]
  5. Waverly Wei†, Junzhe Shao†, Rita Qiuran Lyu, Rebecca Hemono, Xinwei Ma, et al. Enhanced language models for predicting and understanding HIV care disengagement: a case study in Tanzania, npj Digital Medicine, 2026.
  6. Junzhe Shao, Mingzhang Yin, Xiaoxuan Cai, Linda Valeri. Generalized Synthetic Control Method with State-space Model, short version accepted at NeurIPS 2022 Workshop for Causality for realworld impact. Oral presentation at American Causal Inference Conference (ACIC) 2023, manuscript in preparation.
  7. Alton Barbehenn, Lei Shi, Junzhe Shao, et al. Rapid Biphasic Decay of Intact and Defective HIV DNA Reservoir During Acute Treated HIV Disease, Nature Communications, 2024.
  8. Mona Alotaibi†, Junzhe Shao†, Michael W. Pauciulo, et al. Metabolomic Profiles Differentiate Scleroderma-PAH from Idiopathic PAH and Correspond with worsened Functional Capacity, Chest, 2022.

† Co-first authors.